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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 26

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(2:01) 5-M.Prater 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.35 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 36, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model