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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 68

Detroit Lions 0 – Baltimore Ravens 21

What Actually Happened

(10:52) 3-J.Fox punts 48 yards to BAL 20, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-30-K.Dorsey.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.56 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 68, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 26, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP