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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 45

Detroit Lions 0 – Baltimore Ravens 28

What Actually Happened

(11:40) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown to BAL 30 for 15 yards (14-K.Hamilton).

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.13 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 45, worth -2.44 EP
KICK -1.29 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model