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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 6

Detroit Lions 0 – Baltimore Ravens 28

What Actually Happened

(9:35) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 8-J.Reynolds (0-R.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.79 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 6, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model