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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 36

Detroit Lions 0 – Baltimore Ravens 35

What Actually Happened

(4:54) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle intended for 9-J.Williams INTERCEPTED by 26-G.Stone at BAL -3. Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.72 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 36, worth -1.74 EP
KICK +0.19 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 46, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model