Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 70

Baltimore Ravens 35 – Detroit Lions 0

(2:42) 11-J.Stout punts 55 yards to DET 15, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-K.Raymond to DET 23 for 8 yards (34-K.Mitchell; 88-C.Kolar).

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.90 EP
67% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 70, worth -3.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model