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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 69

Detroit Lions 0 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(1:59) 3-J.Fox punts 61 yards to BAL 8, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.37 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 69, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 27, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model