Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 72

Chicago Bears 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

(13:38) 16-T.Gill punts 47 yards to LV 25, Center-48-P.Scales. 3-D.Carter pushed ob at LV 43 for 18 yards (55-D.Cole).

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.29 EP
59% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 72, worth -4.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model