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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 9

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Chicago Bears 21

What Actually Happened

(14:12) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer pass short left to 17-D.Adams ran ob at CHI 5 for 4 yards.

The Three Options

GO +2.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.79 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 9, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model