4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 23

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(10:12) 2-D.Carlson 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.63 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 23, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 33, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model