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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 6

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Chicago Bears 21

What Actually Happened

(12:24) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.81 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 6, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP