4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 18 at the 36

Chicago Bears 21 – Las Vegas Raiders 6

What Actually Happened

(5:51) 8-C.Santos 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.55 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 36, worth -1.60 EP
KICK +0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model