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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 70

Chicago Bears 30 – Las Vegas Raiders 6

What Actually Happened

(3:38) 16-T.Gill punts 30 yards to LV 40, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.17 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 70, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 28, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model