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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 47

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(:48) 6-A.Cole punts 39 yards to CHI 8, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.87 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 47, worth -2.87 EP
KICK -1.33 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 13, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model