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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 36

Minnesota Vikings 19 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(:24) 1-G.Joseph 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.94 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT +0.51 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model