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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 37

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Minnesota Vikings 22

What Actually Happened

(13:26) 4-J.Moody 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.55 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 37, worth -2.02 EP
KICK +0.25 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model