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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 42

Minnesota Vikings 22 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(9:22) 14-R.Wright punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.39 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.77 EP
KICK +0.08 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP