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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 51

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Minnesota Vikings 22

What Actually Happened

(6:18) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to MIN 49 for 2 yards (97-H.Phillips; 94-D.Lowry).

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.17 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 51, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.84 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model