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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 22

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(14:57) 4-J.Moody 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.69 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 22, worth -1.06 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 32, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model