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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 76

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(14:20) 6-J.Gillan punts 54 yards to WAS 22, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 31 for 9 yards (47-C.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.30 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 76, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 34, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model