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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 75

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(7:55) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to NYG 23, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 3-S.Shepard to NYG 28 for 5 yards (51-D.Mayo).

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 75, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 32, worth -1.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model