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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 16 at the 56

New York Giants 14 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 6-J.Gillan punts 45 yards to WAS 11, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 83-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.28 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 56, worth -2.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model