Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 90

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 14

(1:08) 5-T.Way punts 58 yards to NYG 32, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 3-S.Shepard.

The Three Options

GO -3.08 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.58 EP
64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 90, worth -5.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model