Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 66

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(11:48) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to NYG 14, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 20-E.Gray MUFFS catch, touched at NYG 14, recovered by NYG-44-N.McCloud at NYG 10. 44-N.McCloud pushed ob at NYG 11 for 1 yard (51-D.Mayo).

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.75 EP
60% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 66, worth -3.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model