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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 12

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(11:07) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right to 1-J.Dotson pushed ob at NYG 4 for 8 yards (29-X.McKinney).

The Three Options

GO +3.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.99 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 12, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 22, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model