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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 58

Washington Commanders 7 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(5:38) 5-T.Way punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.50 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 58, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 18, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model