4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 71

New York Giants 14 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(4:15) 6-J.Gillan punts 58 yards to WAS 13, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 17 for 4 yards (47-C.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 71, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 29, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP