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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 75

Washington Commanders 7 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(2:33) 5-T.Way punts 54 yards to NYG 21, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 86-D.Slayton.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.93 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 75, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 32, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP