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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 71

New York Giants 14 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(1:18) 6-J.Gillan punts 51 yards to WAS 20, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 27 for 7 yards (30-D.Holmes). PENALTY on WAS-26-T.Castro-Fields, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.49 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 71, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 29, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP