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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 18

Washington Commanders 7 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin to NYG 12 for 6 yards (25-D.Banks).

The Three Options

GO +2.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +3.99 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 18, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 28, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model