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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 23

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(8:25) 9-G.Gano 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +2.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.78 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 23, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 33, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP