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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 64

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(7:32) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to NYG 11, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 20-E.Gray.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.81 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 64, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 22, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model