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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 80

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(6:19) 6-J.Gillan punts 45 yards to WAS 35, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 38 for 3 yards (24-D.Belton).

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.97 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 80, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.57 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 37, worth -1.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP