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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 25

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(8:55) 11-C.Dicker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.56 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 35, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP