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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 73

Chicago Bears 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 27

What Actually Happened

(7:24) 16-T.Gill punts 47 yards to LAC 26, Center-48-P.Scales. 12-D.Davis to LAC 32 for 6 yards (44-N.Sewell).

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model