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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 71

Chicago Bears 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 27

What Actually Happened

(3:57) 23-R.Johnson right guard to CHI 29 for no gain (97-J.Bosa; 51-S.Joseph).

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.21 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model