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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 28

Los Angeles Chargers 27 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(3:05) 11-C.Dicker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.88 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 28, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 38, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model