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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 26

Chicago Bears 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 30

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short right intended for 25-D.Evans INTERCEPTED by 26-A.Samuel at LAC 24. 26-A.Samuel pushed ob at LAC 27 for 3 yards (85-C.Kmet). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short right to 25-D.Evans (26-A.Samuel).

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.29 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model