4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 35

Los Angeles Chargers 30 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(11:44) 30-A.Ekeler left tackle to CHI 35 for no gain (22-E.Hicks). Penalty on LAC-88-T.McKitty, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.59 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 35, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
  • 72% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 45, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model