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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 31

Chicago Bears 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 30

What Actually Happened

(9:04) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle intended for 11-D.Mooney INTERCEPTED by 3-D.James (32-A.Gilman) at LAC 19. 3-D.James pushed ob at LAC 25 for 6 yards (13-T.Scott).

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.17 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
  • 79% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model