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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 5

Chicago Bears 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 30

What Actually Happened

(3:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-D.Evans up the middle to LAC 1 for 4 yards (45-T.Tuipulotu, 31-N.Niemann).

The Three Options

GO +3.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.95 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 5, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model