Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 14 at the 66

Cincinnati Bengals 31 – San Francisco 49ers 17

(:19) 10-B.Robbins punts 46 yards to SF 20, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +0.38 EP
72% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 66, worth -1.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model