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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 73

Cleveland Browns 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(13:00) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 54 yards to SEA 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 32 for 13 yards (40-M.Adams; 42-T.Fields). PENALTY on SEA-1-D.Eskridge, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 30.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.02 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 73, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 31, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP