4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 80

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(10:09) 4-M.Dickson punts 60 yards to CLE 20, Center-41-C.Stoll. 8-E.Moore ran ob at CLE 33 for 13 yards (30-M.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.28 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 80, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.97 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 37, worth -1.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model