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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 60

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(13:28) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to CLE 10, Center-41-C.Stoll. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 17 for 7 yards (58-D.Hall).

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.37 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 60, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 19, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP