4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 7

Cleveland Browns 14 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(7:33) 7-D.Hopkins 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +2.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.94 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 7, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP