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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 40

Cleveland Browns 20 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(10:49) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 29 yards to SEA 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.56 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 40, worth -2.08 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP