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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 17 at the 47

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(5:57) 4-M.Dickson punts 36 yards to CLE 11, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-44-N.Bellore.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.64 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 47, worth -2.29 EP
KICK -0.65 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 13, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model