Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 15 at the 80

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

(14:10) 6-P.Harvin punts 33 yards to JAX 47, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.30 EP
71% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 80, worth -4.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model