Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 65

Jacksonville Jaguars 9 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

(7:40) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to PIT 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.93 EP
55% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model